Donald Trump Is a Gift to Canada’s Liberal Party
Donald Trump’s threats of steep tariffs and talk of annexing Canada have sparked an upsurge in Canadian patriotism — and a boost in support for the Liberals. With an election sometime this year, party leaders are racing to define their stance on Trump.
Mark Carney, former governor of the Bank of Canada and Liberal Party leader candidate, during a Liberal Party leadership debate in Montreal on Monday, February 24, 2025. (Graham Hughes / Bloomberg via Getty Images)
In recent weeks, a feeling of national unity has surged in Canada in response to Donald Trump’s suggestion that the United States could annex its northern neighbor. Hats emblazoned with “Canada Is Not for Sale” have gone viral, while consumers have begun boycotting American products and canceling future trips to the US.
The threat of impending tariffs has further heightened tension between the two countries, once historic allies. The animosity was on full display earlier this month during the US-Canada hockey match, where American players faced a hostile crowd at Montreal’s Bell Centre. The arena erupted in boos during the US national anthem, and the game descended into chaos with three fights in the first nine seconds.
With an election on the horizon, Canadian politicians have embraced bipartisan unity in response to the diplomatic crisis. Five of Canada’s former prime ministers — Joe Clark, Kim Campbell, Jean Chrétien, Paul Martin and Stephen Harper — recently wrote an open letter asking Canadians to fly their flag for the sixtieth anniversary of the Canadian flag. “We’ve had our share of battles in the past,” they wrote. But we all agree on one thing: Canada, the true north, strong and free, the best country in the world, is worth celebrating and fighting for.”
Trump Lifts Liberals
Donald Trump’s threats appear to be benefiting Liberals, according to multiple polls. While months of criticism and dismal polling ultimately forced Justin Trudeau to resign last month, a Léger survey recorded a six-point bump in Liberal support since January 26 — just days after the Trump inauguration.
Politicians quickly recognized the political opportunity. In recent weeks, Trudeau has positioned himself as a staunch defender of Canada and its interests, appearing across media platforms, including on US television networks. This visibility may explain the surge in support, but it also reflects a broader trend: in times of crisis — such as the one caused by Trump’s return to power — voters tend to rally around their government.
“We don’t pretend to be perfect, but Canada is the best country on earth,” Trudeau said in a recent speech responding to Trump’s threats. “There’s nowhere else that I and our 41-million strong family would rather be, and we will get through this challenge just as we’ve done countless times before: together.”
It was a stark contrast from his dark resignation speech in January, when he acknowledged that relentless internal dissent and collapsing poll numbers had made his leadership untenable. “This country deserves a real choice in the next election, and it has become clear to me that if I’m having to fight internal battles, I cannot be the best option in that election,” he said at the time.
Now the unexpected swell in anti-Trump unity has given some Liberals hope that they might pull off one of the greatest comebacks in Canadian political history. But first, they must elect their next leader. The two front-runners are former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney and former Trudeau cabinet minister Chrystia Freeland, with Carney emerging as the likely favorite. According to the Léger survey, a Carney-led party would boost Liberal support by six points to 37 percent, putting them in a dead heat with the Tories.
From “Broken Canada” to “Canada First”
Just weeks ago, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre seemed poised for a landslide victory in the next election. But Trump’s return to power changed the game. The populist leader’s attacks against Trudeau once served him well, but with nationalism eclipsing partisanship, his approach appears to be faltering.
For years, Poilievre, has railed against Liberal policies, clashed with provincial leaders and the mayors of several major cities, and declared that everything in Canada is “broken.” Now he faces a test: Can he shift from relentless opposition to become the unifier-in-chief?
A major turning point came with Trudeau’s resignation. The Conservatives had their campaign around defeating him, but with Trudeau gone, the ballot question has changed: Who is best suited to stand up to Trump? A Nanos poll found that 40 percent of Canadians see Carney as the strongest leader to face Trump, while only 26 percent believe Poilievre is the right choice.
At a recent rally in Ottawa, Poilievre struck a new tone. “Sometimes it does take a threat to remind us what we have, what we could lose, and what we could become,” he said, vowing to defend Canada’s sovereignty at any cost. He outlined a plan to make Canada more self-reliant by increasing defense spending, diversifying trade, and building more pipelines.
The event also served as a platform for Poilievre to distance himself from Trump. Previously branded as the Canadian version of Trump, he has now shifted from his “Broken Canada” messaging to a new slogan: “Canada First.”
However, some of his proposals overlap with those of the White House. For example, Poilievre has pledged to cut Canada’s development assistance and redirect funds to the military — just as the Trump administration has moved to dismantle the US Agency for International Development (USAID).
Meanwhile, the Liberals are seizing the moment, launching attack ads that portray Poilievre as an importer of MAGA politics. One ad juxtaposes clips of Poilievre and Trump using identical phrases, from “everything is broken” to “fake news” and “the radical left.”
Poilievre is also navigating tensions from within the broader conservative movement. In Ontario, where an election is underway, Conservatives want a leader who will push back against Trump — much like Ontario premier Doug Ford, who has been publicly asserting Canadian sovereignty, from wearing a patriotic hat to delivering a clear message on Fox News: “President-elect Trump is a real estate tycoon; he’s made billions. But that property is not for sale. It’s as simple as that.”
In contrast, Conservative premier of Alberta Danielle Smith has taken a much softer approach to the Trump White House, meeting with US lawmakers and calling for cooperation rather than retaliation. Poilievre must now strike a balance. A Léger poll from October found that 45 percent of Conservative voters actually wanted Trump to win the US election — a reminder that his base isn’t entirely aligned on the issue.
Weakened Oppositions
Canada’s opposition parties find themselves weaker than ever. The New Democratic Party (NDP), already struggling for months, is losing a significant share of its electorate to the Liberals — largely due to Pierre Poilievre.
Many NDP supporters hate Poilievre as much as they do Donald Trump and view his potential victory as a disaster. With Justin Trudeau no longer in the picture, many now feel more comfortable supporting Mark Carney or Chrystia Freeland. Carney, especially, is seen as being able to stand up to the American president.
NDP leader Jagmeet Singh, who has been on the political backfoot for months, continues to see his poll numbers plummet. His party was weakened by its support for Trudeau’s minority government in exchange for the establishment of a national dental care program. Despite leading the NDP since 2017, Singh has never managed to secure more than 20 percent of the vote. Projections for the next election are even bleaker — he risks losing a significant portion of his support and possibly half of his MPs.
The Bloc Québécois, Canada’s other major opposition party, has also been shaken by the Trump effect. A recent poll found that pro-Canadian sentiment has surged in recent weeks — most notably in Quebec, a province historically ambivalent or outright hostile toward federal patriotism.
The Bloc has dropped six points in the latest Léger poll. While its position isn’t as bad as the NDP’s, its ambitions have been tempered. Just a month ago, the party entertained the possibility of becoming the official opposition for the second time in its history. Now it faces the risk of losing some seats.
Still the political landscape remains fluid. Trump’s next moves — and how he engages with Canada’s next prime minister — are unpredictable. But one thing is certain: navigating a Trump presidency will require an extraordinary degree of political flexibility from whoever leads Canada next.